President Donald Trump is leading in a hypothetical four-way presidential race, as shown by the recent The Messenger/HarrisX survey. The poll reveals Trump with 38% support, ahead of President Joe Biden’s 35%, independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s 13%, and Cornel West’s 2%. Moreover, 12% of those surveyed remain undecided.
Trump’s lead continues even in a one-on-one contest against Biden, with 45% to 41% in Trump’s favor. The RealClearPolitics polling average, which includes the survey, shows Trump leading Biden by 0.7% support.
The addition of Kennedy to the poll is significant, as he launched an independent bid earlier this month. As an independent candidate, Kennedy draws support from 2020 Trump and Biden voters. His entry makes the race more complex, particularly in how he might pull from major candidates.
Trump leads 4-way race with Biden, RFK Jr., West: poll | Just The News https://t.co/1bri5CmpoU
— John Solomon (@jsolomonReports) October 25, 2023
According to Drtian Nesho, CEO of HarrisX, “As an Independent candidate, RFK Jr. pulls equal numbers of 2020 Trump and Biden voters and wins the lion’s share of undecided Independents, hurting Trump more than Biden in the process and thus making the horse race closer.”
Regarding party support, The Messenger/HarrisX poll shows members of both major parties largely backing their respective candidates. However, independents are more divided, with 28% supporting Trump, 26% for Biden, and 20% for Kennedy.
Trump is also the favorite to win the Republican nomination, with 61% support, followed by Ron DeSantis at 11%. Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and tech mogul Vivek Ramaswamy trail with 6% and 5% support, respectively.
Kennedy’s independent bid has the potential to disrupt the race significantly. His vaccine skepticism might attract voters who would otherwise lean toward Trump. On the other hand, for Democratic-leaning voters, Kennedy could serve as an “alternative that they need” to Biden, as pointed out by South Carolina-based Republican strategist Dave Wilson. Kennedy’s presence in the race “would probably pull a little bit from both parties,” agreed Republican strategist John Thomas.
Clearly, Trump continues to enjoy significant support from his base and holds a leading position in the current poll. His standing is a testament to the solid base he has built over the years and his ability to resonate with a significant portion of the American electorate. As the race evolves and new candidates like Kennedy enter the fray, it will be interesting to see how dynamics shift. Nevertheless, Trump’s lead in this four-way contest is a positive indicator for his 2024 campaign.