In next year’s presidential race, some analysts predict that Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who exited the Democratic primary to launch a third-party bid, could pull as many — if not more — votes from the GOP nominee as he does from the incumbent Democrat.
The national race is not the only upcoming election for which a former Democratic candidate could present a spoiler option to voters from both parties. As Arizona voters prepare to cast a ballot in that state’s U.S. Senate race, it is still unclear whether Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), who left the Democratic Party last year, will throw her hat in the ring for another term.
If she does, there is further uncertainty regarding which of the two major-party candidates — most likely Democratic U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego and former GOP gubernatorial hopeful Kari Lake — would benefit most from her candidacy.
I'm not a career politician.
I can't be bought. I can't be bribed.
My principles aren't up for sale.@RubenGallego sold us out to the war machine & the Beltway class.@kyrstensinema takes her cues from the contractors & lobbyists.
I only answer to the people of Arizona. pic.twitter.com/nrKHiIv6N2
— Kari Lake (@KariLake) November 20, 2023
Conventional wisdom might suggest that the former Democrat would split the vote of her former party, giving the Republican candidate an edge. Nevertheless, the National Republican Senatorial Committee does not appear to be taking anything for granted with an electorate that is almost evenly divided between Republicans, Democrats, and independents.
NRSC spokesperson Tate Mitchell addressed the possibility of a three-way race in a recent statement.
“National Democrats are fighting a lose-lose civil war over who they’ll make their standard bearer: Rotten Ruben Gallego or liberal rubber stamp Kyrsten Sinema,” he said. “Arizonans deserve better.”
Some GOP leaders in the state are reportedly concerned about the effectiveness of any effort to cast Sinema as a left-wing extremist.
“I’m just not sure that’s going to work as a strategy overall,” one Republican source asserted. “Many voters here know Sinema has caused massive headaches for the president with his Build Back Better agenda and the filibuster, so these kinds of attacks just unfortunately aren’t based in reality.”
The party official cited “a real concern among some of us that Gallego will end up as the next senator of Arizona as a result of this three-way race,” asserting: “That would be a real nightmare for us.”
One Arizona political insider believes that Sinema has a narrow, but not impossible, path to re-election as an independent if she decides to run.
Earlier this year, analysts indicated that if she is able to attract the support of about two-thirds of independents and roughly one-third of the Republican vote, she could win another term in the Senate with just 10% to 20% of Democratic voters.
