Incumbent Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has raced out front in a new poll that shows a commanding 12-point lead in his bid for reelection over Democratic challenger Beto O’Rourke.
In the new survey taken by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University, Abbott leads O’Rourke by 12 points among “almost certain” voters, 53% to 41%. Among likely voters the lead is 48% to 42%.
— Newsmax (@newsmax) September 8, 2022
Breaking down the support for each candidate, O’Rourke’s strongest base is with Black voters, who support him 72% to 15%. Hispanic voters are more evenly divided than Black voters, though O’Rourke enjoys a 53% to 38% advantage.
But among White Texas voters, Abbott holds a commanding 61% to 32% advantage. He also dominates the Independent category, leading 46% to 25%. The two are tied among female voters with 45% each while Abbott leads by 18 points among male voters.
O’Rourke famously took grandstanding to a despicable new level when he interrupted an Abbott press conference concerning the mass shooting at Robb Elementary School in May.
And while he is searching for a foothold to bring down the popular incumbent, there has not been an official poll yet that showed O’Rourke with the lead in the race. The latest RealClearPolitics average had the Republican with a seven-point lead 48.4% to 41.2%.
A poll last month conducted by the Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas at Tyler also gave Abbott a seven-point lead.
The latest poll showed that voter preference is almost straight down partisan lines. The survey revealed “virtually every Texas Democrat” is voting for O’Rourke and “virtually every Texas Republican” is choosing Abbott.
Some interesting lines of demarcation emerge when looking at the ages of potential voters. The poll showed those in ages from Generation X up through baby boomers/“silent generation” prefer Abbott by 11 and 28 points, respectively.
However, millennials and Generation Z stand behind O’Rourke by 21 and 23 points, respectively. Clearly, with just weeks remaining, the Texas governor’s race is Abbott’s if he can hang on.