Steve Kornacki, an MSNBC political analyst, demonstrated on Tuesday how President Joe Biden’s dreadful approval ratings could spell disaster for Democrats in the midterm elections.
Devastating for Dems https://t.co/d4sKzHFmEG
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) October 5, 2022
Kornacki compared Biden’s approval ratings with other recent presidents around the midterm elections during their terms, showing that approval ratings as low as Biden’s usually indicate that the president’s party will take a significant hit at the voter booth.
“First the big picture indicator, we always say the president’s job approval rating, usually the most reliable indicator of how midterms are going to go,” Kornacki began. “Joe Biden’s approval rating is 42.7%.”
“Put that in perspective with modern presidents in their first midterm,” he continued. “Biden’s right at the same level that Trump, Obama, and Bill Clinton were in what were brutal midterms for them.”
The political analyst pointed out that former President George W. Bush is the only recent example of a president whose party did not suffer at the polls during the midterm elections. This could be explained by the fact that, for Bush, the midterm elections were held a year after the 9/11 attacks.
“You see what this meant: for Trump, he lost the house in ’18, for Obama, his party lost the house in ’10, for Clinton, his party lost the house in `94,” Karnacki said.
Kornacki then drilled down on the polls, revealing further complications for the Democratic Party.
“What’s made this a little more complicated, though, is when you look at the generic ballot, when you ask folks, Democrat or Republican, who would you like to see control Congress next year, the Republicans have the lead on average on this question — It’s by one point,” he said. ““But if you look at the past in the most recent waves in midterm elections, ’18, ’14, ’10, ’06, these were all wave elections and the party that won those waves was up by more than a point at this juncture in the race.”
“So the generic ballot is closer than we’ve seen in wave elections of recent times,” Kornacki concluded.