While it is almost a foregone conclusion that republicans will take over the House at the upcoming midterm elections, the Senate was not as promising, until Black voters began to make the move from democrat to republican.
CNN states, “Black voters tend to be a forgotten part of the discussion about general elections. The reason is simple: They have been one of the most Democratic parts of the electorate for a long time.” That is no longer a foregone conclusion.
That is not to say that republicans will garner the support of the majority of Black voters. The difference is in the margins.
According to CNN, “An average of the final five live interview polls of the 2020 election showed Biden with an 84% to 9% lead over then-President Donald Trump among Black voters – a big 75-point advantage.” It was one of the major reasons Biden won states like Nevade, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Recent polls show a major shift from a 75-point advantage to a 62-point advantage amongst Black voters. “But this year, an average of the last five live interview polls I could find gives Democrats a 74% to 12% advantage among Black voters – a 62-point edge,” the CNN article asserts.
The video below discusses some of the reasons that Black voters are moving to the republican party, but it is a complicated topic that will not be fully explained until after the election. For now, it seems clear that many Black Americans are reconsidering what it means to be a democrat and a republican in the world today.
A recent LA Times article, linked in the tweet below, is one example of Black male voters turning from a well-known Black incumbent mayor to a billionaire white mayoral candidate.
With voting already under way for L.A. mayor, a new poll shows that frontrunner @KarenBassLA is having trouble hanging onto support from Black men.
Instead, many plan to back billionaire @RickCarusoLA.
For my latest column, I took a closer look at why.https://t.co/QdPNAv8fO1
— Erika D. Smith 🦅 (@Erika_D_Smith) June 6, 2022
The Daily Wire shows one of the biggest reasons for this phenomenon is Joe Biden. When support from Black voters for democrats was around 84-to-9, Biden’s approval rating amongst Black voters was around 87% back in the beginning of 2021. It stands at around 64% now which, while still higher than his overall approval rating, a 23-point drop is significant.
With numerous tight senate and house votes coming up in November, the Black vote could be one of the determining factors of which party takes control of the Senate in 2023.